Prof. Hasan Almomani
Director of Centre for Strategic Studies-The University of Jordan
Historically speaking, the international order, regardless of its nature, has always had a direct impact on developments related Palestinian issue. After World War II, an international order with various global structures was established, playing a significant role in formally founding the State of Israel and thereby igniting the Arab–Israeli conflict in 1948, at the heart of which lies the Palestinian question. This influence was evident during the Cold War era, when the Palestinian issue became intertwined with regional and international polarization, whether in the context of pursuing a peaceful solution or waging wars aimed at liberation.
With the end of the Cold War in the late 1980s, and the collapse of the Eastern Bloc alongside the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, the United States of America emerged as the sole victorious superpower. This marked the beginning of what is referred to as the American–Western supremacy. These global developments, coupled with the geopolitical shifts in the Middle East at that time, had a direct influence on the Palestinian issue. The largest and most extensive peace process involving the Arab states—including the Palestinians—and Israel commenced in the early 1990s, leading to a profound shift toward peace between Palestinians and Israelis, as embodied in the Oslo Accords of 1993 and the subsequent peace efforts.
Currently, major players capable of defining their roles and statuses through their capacities—most notably the United States under President Trump, are endeavoring to shape a new international order based on “America First.” This goal is pursued through agreements and understandings aimed at dividing spheres of global influence among major powers such as Russia and China, stemming from a pragmatic and Machiavellian outlook that dictates the strongs can act as they can, whereas the weaks must suffer the co their weakness. It is an era of “peace through strength”—an era of imposed settlements, particularly on weaker parties, so that states possessing economic and military strength can reap benefits. This perspective is clearly reflected in how the Trump administration deals with conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Palestinian issue in general.
Within the pragmatic and realistic calculus of power dynamics, the powerful American ally, Israel adopts this approach, believing that military power compels settlements. Tel Aviv, perceives itself as the prevailing power in the Middle East that has altered the region’s geopolitical landscape; thus, it considers itself entitled to impose agreements consistent with its vision and interests. In the light of this harsh international and regional reality, and given the unprecedented state of Palestinian weakness, strategic confusion and internal division, the Palestinian issue and the Palestinian people find themselves at a critical crossroads, overwhelmed by an unprecedented strategic dilemma, particularly in the short and medium term. This narrows their range of options considerably, increasing the likelihood that settlements could be imposed by Trump and Netanyahu.
To avoid or at least contain and mitigate, such outcomes, Palestinians must move with lightning speed to put their own house in order understructure their political system. They also need to work closely with Jordan and broader Arab diplomacy, specifically the plan that has garnered international support, to escape this nightmarish scenario. The Arab states most directly involved—especially Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the other Gulf countries, These Arab countries enjoy strategic ties and mutual interests with Washington D.C. Therefore, from a realpolitik and transactional point of view, Trump and his administration still needs these nations. Thus, they can wield reciprocal influence. At the end of the day US-Arab relations are two ways street.